How Safe is Your City from Earthquakes?

earthquake map

Most people don’t think of Shizuoka as a dangerous place, but according to the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, the odds are nearly 90 percent that there’s going to be a major earthquake there within the next 30 years.
The agency defines a major earthquake as over 6-lower on the Shindo scale. A 6-lower is basically when there’s a chance of furniture falling, windows breaking, less-stable buildings collapsing and fires breaking out.

As far as I can tell, the scary predictions you hear about a 70 percent chance of a 7.2  earthquake in Tokyo in the next 30 years are for offshore quakes.

Akita                            7.7

Aomori                         2.0

Asahikawa                   0.2

Chiba                            64.0

Fukui                             1.7

Fukuoka                      3.8

Fukushima                  0.9

Gifu                               17.0

Hakodate                    0.5

Hiroshima                   19.4

Kagoshima                  15.8

Kanazawa                   1.8

Kobe                             17.7

Kochi                             62.3

Kofu                              55.3

Kumamoto                 7.1

Kyoto                            14.6

Maebashi                    2.5

Matsue                        2.1

Matsuyama                33.5

Mito                              31.6

Miyazaki                      45.5

Morioka                       0.7

Nagano                        12.2

Nagasaki                      1.3

Nagoya                        44.4

Naha                             24.9

Nara                              67.1

Niigata                          7.6

Oita                               48.3

Okayama                     22.3

Osaka                           59.5

Otsu                              12.1

Saga                              5.0

Saitama                        22.7

Sapporo                       1.2

Sendai                          4.1

Shizuoka                      89.5

Takamatsu                  40.7

Tokushima                  59.9

Tokyo                           19.7

Tottori                          4.1

Toyama                        5.7

Tsu                                 85.2

Utsunomiya                 1.6

Wakayama                 47.5

Yamagata                    2.3

Yamaguchi                  3.0

Yokohama                  66.7

The information in this post is based on:

If you want more information about earthquake hazards, the best place is: J-SHIS (Japan Seismic Hazard Information System). It’s all in Japanese, but it’s pretty obvious from the map:

There are some links to (slightly older) English-language documents from the agency here:

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