Most people don’t think of Shizuoka as a dangerous place, but according to the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, the odds are nearly 90 percent that there’s going to be a major earthquake there within the next 30 years.
The agency defines a major earthquake as over 6-lower on the Shindo scale. A 6-lower is basically when there’s a chance of furniture falling, windows breaking, less-stable buildings collapsing and fires breaking out.
As far as I can tell, the scary predictions you hear about a 70 percent chance of a 7.2 earthquake in Tokyo in the next 30 years are for offshore quakes.
| Akita 7.7
Aomori 2.0 Asahikawa 0.2 Chiba 64.0 Fukui 1.7 Fukuoka 3.8 Fukushima 0.9 Gifu 17.0 Hakodate 0.5 Hiroshima 19.4 Kagoshima 15.8 Kanazawa 1.8 Kobe 17.7 Kochi 62.3 Kofu 55.3 Kumamoto 7.1 Kyoto 14.6 |
Maebashi 2.5
Matsue 2.1 Matsuyama 33.5 Mito 31.6 Miyazaki 45.5 Morioka 0.7 Nagano 12.2 Nagasaki 1.3 Nagoya 44.4 Naha 24.9 Nara 67.1 Niigata 7.6 Oita 48.3 Okayama 22.3 Osaka 59.5 Otsu 12.1 Saga 5.0 |
Saitama 22.7
Sapporo 1.2 Sendai 4.1 Shizuoka 89.5 Takamatsu 40.7 Tokushima 59.9 Tokyo 19.7 Tottori 4.1 Toyama 5.7 Tsu 85.2 Utsunomiya 1.6 Wakayama 47.5 Yamagata 2.3 Yamaguchi 3.0 Yokohama 66.7
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The information in this post is based on: https://www.meanwhile-in-japan.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/090721yosokuchizu.pdf
If you want more information about earthquake hazards, the best place is: J-SHIS (Japan Seismic Hazard Information System). It’s all in Japanese, but it’s pretty obvious from the map: http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/
There are some links to (slightly older) English-language documents from the agency here: http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index-e.html
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